Barone is really smart, but some projections are rather too optimistic; such as 20 point win for her in MT, SD, PA and even larger in WV, KY and a 10 point in IN and loss in OR and NC by 10 and win in PR by 30.

Even without those optimistic projections, I still think that she pulls up an upset by winning the popular vote.

20 point wins in IN and PA.  A 40 point win in WV?

I'm willing to bet anyone on this board that Obama will win IN +20, PA +20 and WV + 40.  Any takers?

And don't even get me started on MT and SD + 20.

Yes if Clinton wins every state by stunningly huge margins, she'll be the nominee.  There's no argument there.  The question is what's the case for those margins.

A 20 point margin in Indiana??????  Right next to Illinois, Indiana?  Barone is drinking this foxnews kool-aid.  I'll never take him seriously again if he's printing this b.s.

A 20 point win in MT, SD, and PA?  Better than 20 in WV, KY, and PR?  Obama squeaks by with 10 point wins only in NC and OR?  

I think that his statement at the end is certainly worth noting, and is likely prophetic:

"Of course my projections could just be plain wrong. Clinton could win Pennsylvania by an unimpressive margin on April 22 and get clocked in Indiana as well as North Carolina on May 6. Then you might see a cascade of superdelegates toward Obama, and the race might effectively be over."

She will be lucky if she gets more than +10 in PA.

I did check it out, and Barone gives Clinton a predicted 20% advantage in PA and Indiana (i.e. 60/40 over Obama), 40% advantage in West Virgina, 30% in Kentucky, and 30% in Puerto Rico, and 20% in South Dakota and Montana, while giving Obama only a 10% edge in NC and Oregon.  

Pardon me, but (as Barone half-admits) this is wildly optimistic in favor of Clinton.  Would the diarist like to offer odds on the above actually happening?  

And for the record Michael Barone is a talented writer but a terrible prognasticator.  He had the Reps keeping both the Senate AND the House in 2006.  More evidence of HRC getting the love from conservative pundits.  

His estimate does not include caucus states, which if you are using the popular vote as a measure you cannot ignore 1/3 of the country

DNC Plan was to have primary till Jun 3 so let it go on! Media and blogs, don't think that your voice is important than people's!

Let's take IN and WV.  The projection is Clinton + 20 in IN and Clinton + 40 in WV.  

If Clinton matches or exceeds one of those margins.  I will recommend every diary you write for the week following the WV vote.  If she gets or exceeds that margin in both of those states, I will recommend every diary you write for a week following the WV vote and write a non-sarcastic diary calling for Obama to concede.

On the other hand, if Clinton can't match either of those margins (so I'd need both to win), you recommend one diary of mine, titled, "Universal lost the bet."

I'm giving you incredibly favorable terms here.  Are you willing to accept them or do you too think that these are ridiculously slanted projections?

What people are failing attend to is just how conservative Barone's projection of Clinton's popular vote win is in one key respect: he is NOT assuming that vote totals from either FL and MI are included in any way.

Of course, if FL is included, and in some fashion MI, those are game changers in terms of popular vote.

And the real wild card here is Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has apparently enjoyed an astoundingly high voter participation rate in general -- roughly 80%. To me, it's pretty unthinkable that that electorate, given the heady prospect of being a decisive vote in the selection of the Democratic nominee of the mainland -- which I'd expect they must feel they want to have greater influence over if they can -- would not vote in the largest possible numbers. It seems to me that the estimate of  1,000,000 voters might be quite low, and a higher estimate nearer 2,000,000 might be more accurate.

And that vote might go massively toward Hillary, almost precisely because the Puerto Rican parties don't match up well with the traditional Democratic/Republican divide. I'd expect that because the pre-existing allegiances are not well defined, they could easily be influenced by crowd psychology and on the basis of such things as how their families in the mainland perceived Hillary and Obama. And certainly in the states, Hillary has won the lions share of the Puerto Rican vote.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a margin of 30 or 40 percent, under those conditions, and if the number of voters were indeed roughly 2,000,000, that would be a 600,000 to 800,000 margin for Hillary.

Anything coming close to such a result would indeed be a game changer in terms of the popular vote. And, while it's certainly the purest of speculation, the flexible, mostly undefined electoral conditions in Puerto Rico make such a scenario at least plausible.

Obama knows that he's peaked, his delegate and popular vote lead are probably only going to trend down from now on. So he's trying to force Hillary out of the race.

Obama's the likely nominee, but Hillary has a chance. Millions of voters haven't spoken yet, let them decide instead of trying of declaring a winner before the race has been won.

is also an openly admitted conservative. From his bio:

Barone is a senior writer for U.S. News & World Report and a frequent contributor during Fox News Channel's election coverage. His political views are generally conservative, and Barone has said he is not a religious believer, although he is sympathetic to and respectful of socially conservative believers.

Considering the wildly optimistic results he forecasts, this story can probably be put in the "let's help prolong the Democratic nomination fight as long as we can" box.

This will be over in June. And no matter how much it displeases the Fox News crowd, barring circumstances we can't forecast, Obama will be the nominee.

:-)

The numbers will vary a bit, these are predictions, of course, but BO's antidemocratic stalling on MI and FL are hurting him, HRC is becoming the more pro-democracy candidate, thus the pundits are sensing it and writing these kinds of predictions....

BO has been unable to don the front runner mantle, he can't lead or pull out ahead effectively.  He can't "heal" the divisions in the party.  So people are taking a second hard look at who is excercising fight and leadership and that is HRC.

Check out Talk left today discussing how BO blew it with Edwards.....

covered here:
http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid 45604

lets parse his words a little more closely.

"I used Cost's default turnout numbers and estimates of the two-candidate percentages which I consider optimistic from the Clinton point of view but not wildly unrealistic"

He is saying that Clinton has a chance to win the PV, not that she will win the PV.

knowng chuck and knowing baron's - not so secret - secret...i doubt it .

but...
even though as a pundit, he's a total full of shit lying ass,

but he does try to be and is amazingly honest when he has his almanac of amer poliics editor hat  on..

tthse numbrssound crazy tto mee ttoo, butt hes noot mkg tthem up.

this is all gonna come down to fl and mi.

not revoting was THE obama blunder.

i suggest everybody read jeromes diary about this from thurs.  

But if Hillary is the nominee, the MSM would cry like little babies

If the Clinton campaign is looking for a road map and some metrics that can be used to inspire the troops, here they are. If shooting for these numbers means Hillary win s IN by 17% instead of the 12% she might otherwise and wins WV by 35% instead of the 25% she might win otherwise then she continues to make the critical gains in both popular vote and pledged delegate count to get the attention of the SuperDelegates. These will also make for some fun talking points to rebut those who would prefer to call the game over before the clock has run out. As Bill Clinton says "don't you love a good fight?"

If Clinton wins the nomination in a closely contested race.

Practically makes the Clinton/Obama "dream ticket" a foregone conclusion.

I don't think McCain can beat that, regardless of who his running mate is.  Anyway, I suspect it will be another Pale Male.

If pigs had wings, they could fly.  :}

"With each of the upcoming 10 electoral events "She would be getting closer to the nomination, not farther away."

That's what I believe as well.  And I also believe that's the reason why Obama's surrogates have been calling for Hillary to quit.