More reality based posts on the primary process

Who knew there were so many statisticians that read MyDD, or that they had problems comprehending an Y axis, clearly numbered, that doesn't begin at 0! OK, lets talk more about pledged delegates and votes. In the post of Jay Cost, he lays out a number of different graphs, showing the basis of Obama's support, and how he's winning the nomination, among those, the ratio of pledged delegates to votes.

A curious fact is that, though Clinton and Obama are about tied in the popular vote, it takes about 960 more votes for Clinton to gain a single pledged delegate, as it has for Obama (overall). That is, after nearly all the contests, for every 11790 votes Clinton gets, she's earned a pledged delegate, and for every 10800 votes that Obama has gotten, he's earned a pledged delegate.

That's pretty significant, when you consider that it represents about a 9% hardship for Clinton, or a 9% handicap for Obama, in comparison.

Now, by any measure of counting the votes, there is no where near a 9% separation between Clinton and Obama, with the margin going from 1.6% for Obama to .5% for Clinton currently.

Why has this happened?  It's pretty clear in one of the other graphs that Cost presents:




As you can see, Clinton leads by a sliver among those that have voted in primaries, while with the chart here, Obama leads in votes total (doesn't count MI or FL). And yet, among the caucus states, Obama leads by far in the votes. Now, Jay doesn't present the delegate votes by caucus states, but its clear that this is where Obama owes his lead too.

There is little doubt, after FL & MI get resolved & PR votes, that Clinton will lead the popular vote, yet, she will trail in pledged delegates. That's entirely due to the caucus system in place in certain states. Clinton has no basis on which to complain, the un-democratic rules were in place, and everyone knew, but it does point to something that needs to be changed.



Display:


Good God, Get Over It. (2.00 / 13)

She lost.

It's over.

Barack is the Democratic nominee.

Acceptance is the first step toward healing.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:21:31 PM EST

I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 5)

Clinton has no basis on which to complain, the un-democratic rules were in place, and everyone knew, but it does point to something that needs to be changed.

Okay, this is a step up. Sort of. You acknowledge the rules are the rules. However, it's still inaccurate to imply the rules are un-democratic. The people in each state decided these would be the rules used to represent themselves and award delegates during the nomination season. If you disagree with the rules as they stand, that's one thing, but it's folly to imply the rules were un-democratic simply because your candidate came up short according to those rules. As long as states choose to keep caucuses, by definition, they are not un-democratic. If they were deemed inappropriate, they would be removed. Their presence indicates they are accepted means of delegate appropriation within the states that employ them.

But like I said, it's a step in the right direction.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:25:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 3)

It's pretty funny that you were so eager to make your standard knee-jerk comment that you didn't even bother to read the whole post.

Your comment makes no sense, by the way.  Are you under the impression that each caucus state had some kind of democratic referendum on whether to hold a caucus?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:29:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 1)

with the popular vote spin again. This is a delegate race, etc.

And with regards to my comment making sense, how exactly do you think states decide whether to hold primaries or caucuses? People decide. As long as people decide the system should be this way or that way, it stays this way or that way. You don't get to say this way or that way's the wrong way simply because your candidate couldn't win according to the rules agreed upon at the outset.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:32:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 8)

Get over your candidate. This isn't about Obama, but fixing it for 2012.

I'm amazed at how low the discourse has gotten -- people don't even read what others are posting before they comment.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:33:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

See my post below yours. (2.00 / 3)

The system isn't wrong; one candidate's approach to the system was wrong. The only thing that needs to be fixed in 2012 is the penalty appropriation toward candidates who attempt to change rules midstream and states that attempt to jump fences to hold their primaries early.

The caucus/primary system is fine.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:39:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: See my post below yours. (2.00 / 2)

On what planet is it fair that the person who loses the popular vote in a state wins most of the state's delegates?


by wilder on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:15:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In a planet where the people in that state (2.00 / 1)

decided the rules of delegate appropriation beforehand.

Could you point to scenarios in this primary season where either candidate won more delegates in a state they received fewer votes in?

If you can, then could you point to where that went against the rules agreed upon at the start of said primary?


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:18:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In a planet where the people in that state (2.00 / 2)

Could you point to scenarios in this primary season where either candidate won more delegates in a state they received fewer votes in?

Jeez.  Some people aren't paying attention.  

In Nevada Hillary won 6% more county delegates but she won disproportionately in districts with even numbers of assigned federal delegates (where a high margin of victory is required to avoid a 50-50 split).  This gave Obama a 4% advantage in assigned federal delegates.  At the county and state conventions a little bit of chaos and a lot of energized Obama voters resulted in a net advantage of 12%.  

In Texas Hillary won by 4% of the vote but got 3% fewer delegates.  Here the popular vote was purposefully discounted from the beginning.    

If you can, then could you point to where that went against the rules agreed upon at the start of said primary?

No silly.  Nevada could have gone 100% to Kucinich or Bart Simpson at the state convention.  If the nature of the rules was to avoid results like this there wouldn't be much of a call to change them.  I suspect that most states didn't know their caucus rules actually mattered (do to the late date of their contests) and that early voting states are primarily maintaining caucuses to keep power in the hands of traditional ground organizations (unions, local DNC, etc.) and to circumvent their state legislatures.  


by Lystrosaurus on Mon May 26, 2008 at 11:05:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

give jerome a break (none / 0)

It's significant and laudable that he's willing to acknowledge that the existing system determines the rules for the current election - we haven't heard that from a prominent Hillary supporter till now.
No need to pick apart his view that the existing system should be changed. In fact, I quite agree with him.
Not this time.
by jedley on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:10:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and (none / 0)

wouldn't the point on primaries be more meaningful if it was done on a primary by primary basis rather than lumping all primaries together?

I don't really get the popular vote argument as we use delegates and I never know what aspects of the popular vote is being excluding whenever an advocate pushes this forward: Are all if any caucus states excluded, is Michigan alloted any Obama votes, is Puerto Rico counted even though they don't have a gen election vote?  I just feel that whenever that argument is put forth, it's only fair to give some sort of explanation of what the proponent is including and excluding.


by ksh on Mon May 26, 2008 at 05:37:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 3)

Interesting that I didn't hear all this screaming about how undemocratic the caucuses were in 2004. I didn't see graphs going up trying to make the nominee appear illegitimate at all. I didn't hear about popular vote totals either.

Why all the fuss now? Is it because your candidate ran a poor campaign and is losing or is it something else which I won't mention.


by sweet potato pie on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

In 2004, I actually thought there was only one caucus state, Iowa.  The Iowa caucus sounded weird and undemocratic.  I don't know that I would have realized there were so many bizarre caucuses and hybrids if not for the fact that, unlike previous contests, this one has been competitive nearly all the way through.


by wilder on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:17:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who knew there would be so many (none / 0)

bloggers who would be irritated by a graphic showing the losing candidate winning?


by ReillyDiefenbach on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

Do these sites have histories that long?  OK I answered my own question below . . .

I've been bitching about caucuses for over a decade.  I believe Jerome has been arguing for primary reform for years as have others.  Here's Kos in 2004:  

When less than 10 percent of the Iowa electorate makes a decision based more on peer pressure than personal choice (there's no such thing as a secret ballot in a caucus), you know something wrong.

The caucuses must die, as well as Vilsack's candidacy for DNC chair. They are now part of the same battle.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2004/1 1/14/11449/089


by Lystrosaurus on Mon May 26, 2008 at 12:33:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

he was talking about Iowa leading the primary calendar.


by eraske on Mon May 26, 2008 at 05:15:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

Yes, it was specifically about Iowa.  He had several arguments against it being first.  Amongst these arguments was the idea that the caucus was undemocratic (low turnout, subject to peer pressure).  He also said it was too white :)

I'm perfectly aware that Kos makes up arguments to support his positions and has been all over the board on a variety of matters (i.e. used to be Republican).  I just tend to agree that greater turnout and less peer pressure = better.  I always have.  In 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012.  I'd hate to live in a caucus state.  


by Lystrosaurus on Mon May 26, 2008 at 07:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

If you look at what kos was willing to support it was either rotating regional primaries or rotating early primary states.  I don't remember anything about front-loading with different caucus states.  The fact that we did so this year (Iowa, Nevada, Washington, etc.) has more to do with political realities than choice.  It's evidently hard to get states to move their actual primaries.  


by Lystrosaurus on Mon May 26, 2008 at 07:07:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 3)

There is no system that will perfectly balance all of the competing needs of the nomination system. The chart you provide here shows mostly that Obama paid attention to the caucus states, while Clinton ignored them. If she had paid attention to the caucuses, she could have greatly decreased his margin there, and would probably be the nominee. It is not a problem with the system that she had a lousy campaign plan.

Do you understand that Wisconsin voters had 15,000 voters per delegate, while New York voters had 8,000 voters per delegate, and if Michigan is seated in full it will have 5,000 voters per delegate? Do you understand why?

Do you think a party that can't force Michigan and Florida to respect the the calendar will be able to force the caucus states to abandon their long standing tradition? What punishment are they supposed to use to enforce this?


by letterc on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:47:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 0)

Does Jerome understand that the districts that vote Democratic more often were given a bigger say(ie. more delegates) ... should the system for 2012 be  reformed? .. sure ... but we all know Jerome is using it as an excuse to whine because his horse lost the Derby


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

This point is particularly important because even using purely closed primaries doesn't solve it. There are significant areas of the country where many people are registered Dems, but vote Republican for president. The only way to downgrade the importance of these voters is to use weighting, which means that the sort of small inequality in average voters per delegate will happen any time that one of the candidates is preferred by Dixiecrats and Reagan Democrats.


by letterc on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

There are significant areas of the country where many people are registered Dems, but vote Republican for president.

Like Kentucky .. which have no problem voting Dems to local and state offices .. but don't vote for them for them in Presidential races anymore


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:46:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"This isn't about Obama"? (2.00 / 3)

Yes, it is.  You're claiming he won't lead in the popular vote using extremely spurious standards.


John McCain: He flunked ECON 101.
by Shem on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:48:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I call bullshit... (2.00 / 6)

Clinton supporters would have NO trouble with this process if their candidate was ahead.  NONE.  This is whining thinly disguised as bitching about the rules after losing fair and square.

The process is fine, your candidate just had a mediocre plan that was poorly executed.

And as for "how low the discourse has gotten", would  that include the diaries with entire paragraphs cut and pasted from HRC.com that dominated this site for months or the tremendously misleading graph you posted earlier today that even an Intro to Statistics student would tell you was spurious?

Keep up that "high" level of discourse though, we can only hope to aspire to your level.


by Seeking Cincinnatus on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:52:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call bullshit... (none / 0)

Don't tell me Obama supporters wouldn't have problems with this system if he were behind.  

I don't believe that he would have dropped out, either.  There are too many people who have invested him with messianic qualities who would be insisting that he continue.


by wilder on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call bullshit... (2.00 / 3)

There's the messianic bullshit again. Let's be honest, the claims that the good progressives that support Obama are fanatics or cultists is just an ugly smear. It demonstrates a pathetic cynicism that inspirational leadership is attributed to delusion. Those who would sink so low probably would have called MLK or JFK empty suits and their followers mindless zombies.

The type of diary that Jerome writes on a semi-daily basis is cherry picking aimed at, one, tearing down Obama via the insinuation of illegitimacy, and, two, aimed at riling up Hillary supporters who refuse to admit that this thing is over.

I wonder if Jerome can be called messianic in the same way the crowd here likes to smear Obama. Leading the lemmings off the cliff into irrelevancy.


by mikeplugh on Sun May 25, 2008 at 11:08:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call bullshit... (2.00 / 1)

Well said.  

I don't know many HRC supporters in real life; most of my encounters with them are on this site, so maybe I don't have a particularly clear picture of who they are.  But it's clear to me that there is some resentment over Obama's inspirational qualities; hence the nonsense about Obama folks deifying him.  It's like hating the popular kid in school just because he's popular.  

I do not ascribe messianic qualities to Barack Obama, but I am undeniably impressed with his intelligence and political ability.  I think he will make an excellent president, and I can not wait for him to wrap this up so we can all stop wasting our time with silly arguments about process.  

I'd rate you up if I could.


"I am like a Rorschach test...even if people find me disappointing ultimately, they might gain something." -Barack Obama
by tastycakes on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:53:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Where did I say (none / 0)

that all Obama supporters invested him with messianic qualities?  I just said that too many people do, and you need only read the diaries and comments on DailyKos to see.  I realize that reasonable people support Obama as well, but the fringe exists, and it's equal to or larger than any Clinton fringe.


by wilder on Mon May 26, 2008 at 04:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call bullshit... (1.00 / 1)

Clinton supporters would have NO trouble with this process if their candidate was ahead.  NONE.  This is whining thinly disguised as bitching about the rules after losing fair and square.

Please don't pretend to know anything about me.

Thank you.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Mon May 26, 2008 at 09:27:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call bullshit... (none / 0)

Yay! My first troll rating! Thanks, Spinoza! It would be nice, however, if you'd let me know which part of my comment pissed you off.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:02:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

Were they not both running in the same states to the same set of rules? If one candidate is better at the current method of deciding the winner is that unfair?

Grapes seem pretty sour this year!


by telfishbackagain on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:53:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But sour grapes (none / 0)

make for fine whine...


by bookish on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:17:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 3)

If your point of continuously posting arguments like this is to address the issue for 2012, then the timing is curious. You could just as easily push for the caucus system to be re-evaluated after the primary race or general election are over.

The way we Obama supporters see it, it looks like it's being posted to bolster Clinton's case to the SDs (she'll end up with more popular votes!) and to undermine Obama as the illegitimate product of undemocratic elections.

If you're going to push Clinton like this, then it's not exactly fair to snap at us to get over our candidate.

Moreover, any popular vote argument that involves counting Michigan as-is undermines that person's credibility. If one wanted to make a strong case that would get us to actually consider it, you'd at least consider Michigan was FUBAR and shouldn't be counted (except as further proof that the system is messed up).

It's an effective tool in a discussion--concede something to get something back. But insisting that Michigan was a legit and should count just makes us tune out immediately.


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:12:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We'll get over him, Johnny, (2.00 / 1)

in 2016.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 3)

Get over your candidate. This isn't about Obama, but fixing it for 2012.

Everything you post lately has been about Obama, whether it's snide or direct questioning of his legitimacy as the Presidential nominee.

About the level of discourse...what do you know, if you write crap, you'll attract flies.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 2)

"I'm amazed at how low the discourse has gotten"

Really?  Look in the mirror.


Let's elect a Dem President!
by SpanishFly on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (2.00 / 2)

The only way to "fix" this "problem" is to impose uniform rules on all the states - banning caucuses, mandating that all contests have the same openness rules (open, semi-open, or closed). So, good luck getting Iowa to give up their caucuses, imposing open primaries on Maryland, or forcing Virginia and Michigan to close their caucuses in violation if state law.

Or get off the idea that combining vote totals from 60 different contests with different rules, and from 2 contests in which citizens were told their votes wouldn't count, is any kind of decent measure. Combined vote totals ("popular vote" is a misnomer when the numbers arrive under such drastically different circumstances) and pledged delegates are both fundamentally flawed measures - but at least pledged delegates give us to have a common currency and allow each state party to hold elections as they see fit.


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:28:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your reputation preceeds you Jerome (2.00 / 1)

Jerome, you are absolutely right that the system has to be fixed. Evidence enough is the schism between Clinton and Obama supporters so late in the game. Evidence is that Obama has an insurmountable lead and Clinton is still there scrapping it out because she is not mathematically eliminated.

However Jerome, you have lost all credibility. Every post you write is pro Clinton and anti-Obama. They don't even make sense anymore. The last chart you foisted on us was so blatantly deceptive and meaningless, that can you blame people for not taking you seriously? Votes/delegates? That is meaningless. Joe Biden wins! He has a vote, he has 0 delegates. 1 divided by 0 is infinity. Plot that!

It is like watching Karl Rove on Meet the Press. You don't know whether he is speaking the truth as a talking head or trying to twist the truth for the Republican party.  No one trusts what you say Jerome until you write the post that says Hillary lost and should get out for the sake of the party.  People consider you a sore loser.

This links for you Jerome and all your Hillary supporting friends.

http://images.despair.com/products/demotivators/giveup.jpg


by erlin on Mon May 26, 2008 at 12:57:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

Regarding the popular vote totals and whether holding primaries instead of caucuses would have benefited Senator Clinton:

Howard Fineman said that if the Caucus states had held primaries instead, Barack Obama would have added to his popular vote advantage.


by eve on Mon May 26, 2008 at 09:05:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I zoned out after he started (none / 0)

I already mentioned a while back how I think our Texas Two-Step is preferred.  The primary measures the breadth of a candidate's support and the caucus measures the depth of a candidate's support.  I think both are important measurements with slight safeguards from crossparty shenanigans.

I've read that Super Tuesday (in February) was designed to get the strongest candidate the lead ASAP.  I've also read that several of Senator Clinton's team engaged in the process to set this up for her win.  I've seen video of her saying that she intended to "go all the way" through Super Tuesday (assuming she would be the winner at that time).  I guess my point is that modifying the existing method may for a reason not now obvious come back to bite your preferred candidate.  


by Anita on Mon May 26, 2008 at 09:32:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A delegate race indeed in which BO (none / 0)

cannot get enough pledged delegates to win without intervention from the SDs.


by Molee on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:41:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And he's getting that intervention... (none / 0)

...they've been endorsing him in droves since it became obvious this race was over and one of the two candidates was simply interested in dragging out the process and dividing the base.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:42:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A delegate race indeed in which BO (2.00 / 1)

If Obama had received 60% of the pledged delegates, he'd still need help from SD's.  They have 20% of all delegates.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:51:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A delegate race indeed in which BO (2.00 / 1)

If you disregard the superdelegates, then Obama already has a majority of the pledged delegates from the primaries or caucuses...you will have to find another excuse why Hillary ran such a bad campaign with only 1/4 of a billion dollars at her disposal.


by DemoDan on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A delegate race indeed in which BO (2.00 / 1)

Give it a few more days, he is only 52 short at this point.


by telfishbackagain on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

this is a contender... (2.00 / 3)

for one of the silliest pieces of political spin to persist throughout the process. "Can't win without the superdelegates" is predicated entirely upon the superdelegates' existence. If this were solely a pledged delegate race, Obama has already attained the majority that is the standard of victory.


by Casuist on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:56:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What do you mean "people decide"? (none / 0)

I'll tell you who doesn't decide this: the people of the states in question.

The decision to have a caucus or not is, so far as I know, entirely in the hands of the Democratic Party organization in that state -- i.e., the big shots in the Party, and NOT the people.

And,  in case it's never occurred to you, there are bigger concerns than adhering to a set of rules  arbitrarily settled upon by a bunch of bigshots behind closed doors. Among them is the will of the people, which, for many people, simply trumps in importance these arbitrary rules.

And again, you can't acknowledge the obvious: the set of rules, even as they stand, explicitly allow superdelegates to use their own judgment about who they are going to vote for. There is absolutely no presumption that they must vote for the winner of the pledged delegate count. Indeed, there would be essentially no point in the existence of superdelegates if they had to abide by the pledged delegate count.


by frankly0 on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What do you mean "people decide"? (2.00 / 1)

Yes. We should hold meta-primaries to determine how to hold the primaries. But how will we decide the rules for those primaries? Meta-meta-primaries! But then what about those rules...


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:30:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What do you mean "people decide"? (none / 0)

it's called 'voting', the party of the states in question get the question on any of the state ballots in the next couple years and people can have a chance to pick them or change to a straight primary.

damm, having to explain this stuff just because they no longer have civics classes...


by zerosumgame on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:54:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What do you mean "people decide"? (none / 0)

I'll have you know I rocked my civics class.

And putting a policy question regarding a political party (a private entity) on an actual electoral ballot makes tons of sense.

Lastly, I'm sure all those voters in (mostly poor) caucus states are eager to spend state tax dollars on primaries rather than letting parties pay for caucuses.


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:59:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What do you mean "people decide"? (none / 0)

In Indiana the primaries are established by law not the parties.  To change, even the date of the primary election, requires an act of the state legislature.


by DemoDan on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What do you mean "people decide"? (none / 0)

"In Indiana the primaries are established by law not the parties."
I'm pretty sure that you confused things here. States may sponsor the primaries, by establishing a day on which the voting equippment may be used, and most, if not all, do so, but they can't force the parties to actually hold their primary on that day. Parties are free to chose a different date, but then they ought to pay for this. That was the problem in MI and FL, republicans deliberately put the dates outside of the Dem schedule, and the Dem lawmakers were too cheap to pay for their own primary instead. But nobody actually forced them to go with the official date.
No way, no how, no McCain!
by Gray on Mon May 26, 2008 at 05:34:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Clintons are the big shots (none / 0)

The Clintons had much more influence over the structure of the process than Obama ever did.

Remember the Clintons told us it would all be over after super Tuesday?


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Since when do we hold referendums for anything? (2.00 / 1)

The states elected officials - elected by the people - determined how to choose their delegates.  It that purely democratic?  No.  Is anything in our Republic?  Don't make me laugh.  Choosing caucus vs. delegates is no less democratic than the electoral college itself.  I'm not defending the system, but caucuses are no worse than pretty much any other aspect of it.

The fact is, Clinton didn't bother building a ground game for the caucuses, because she assumed she wouldn't have a challenger.  Obama fought for every vote in every state, and didn't dismiss millions of voters for living in states that "don't count."

Look at it like football - if the Bears decide not to throw any long passes next year (which, given their QB situation, is entirely possible), and the Colts beat them with a strong passing game, the system isn't unfair - the Bears just had a lousy gameplan.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:12:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Standard practice now? (none / 0)

To Jerome and other site moderators..

I seem to recall that this site was NOT filled with knee-jerk insults as recently as a few weeks ago, and suddenly it seems flooded with people just throwing out one-line snark replies with nothing of substance.  Disagreement is one thing, but I was just reading a diary on Bill's comments today on the disrespect toward Hillary.. and it's full of the kinds of useless one-liners that ruin the possibility of any dialogue.

What about banning or warning some people to keep this place somewhat sane?  Just thought I would bring it up, I don't typically do this but I've noticed a change that happened very quickly.


by daria g on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:17:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You expect leadership (2.00 / 4)

from the guy who has now posted an item mocking one of his user's stances about the manipulation of graph data from earlier today?


by bookish on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:24:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Standard practice now? (2.00 / 2)

I noticed this one jerk who threw off this one-liner diary calling Obama a "preener". We should talk to Jerome about getting him banned.


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:00:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 1)

My state, for one, didn't have the money to throw a primary separate from our state primary.

I suppose the argument could be made that the caucus could have been folded in to that primary.

I suspect, however, that the rest of the country would be upset with Kansas for making them wait until the first week of August to get everything sorted out.


by Geiiga on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:33:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 3)

Ha, that's telling, and typical, I'll give you that much.

To award pledged-delegates through whats clearly been a disproportional system is about as un-democratic as it gets.

I'm not talking about caucuses being undemocratic, but the process of awarding the delegates.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:29:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 1)

The problem with this, though, is that both candidates knew from the outset the delegate awarding ratio differed in caucuses compared to that in primaries.

The difference was that Obama's campaign put a lot of stock into states with caucuses while Clinton's campaign didn't.

Note the grassroots organization of the Obama campaign, and the outposts in all sorts of red and mountain states the Clinton campaign ignored for months.

In other words, if both camps knew how things went down, but chose to focus on different parts of the puzzle, how is it wrong that one candidate's strategy panned out better than the other's? If Clinton were the one ahead by 200 delegates now from massive wins in multiple caucus states, I wouldn't be going about implying Obama gamed the system, or that the system was flawed to begin with. The flaw would lie in Camp Obama's approach to securing the delegates.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:37:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 1)

The present caucus-friendly system was created by McGovern (and Donald Fraser) in 1968 to help a McGovern-like candidate win future elections, and lo and behold, McGovern indeed won the nomination in 1972. And we all know how well that worked out.

I'm not about to imply that Obama will run as poorly as McGovern, but one can run a lot better than McGovern and still lose the GE.

That should be a cause of concern to any Democrat who wants to win back the WH.


Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings
by Inky on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McGovern's not in it this year (2.00 / 1)

The question isn't whether Obama can run a better campaign than McGovern did; it's whether he can run a better campaign than Clinton.  (actually, the question is, did Obama win according to the rules laid out by the party, and the answer is a resounding yes).

Despite Clinton's huge lead going into the race, and a 100-superdelegate lead, she blew it.  Not because people are sexist (it's not like Obama doesn't have discrimination to worry about), and not because the system is somehow rigged against her.  Everyone knew going in how caucuses work and how to win them - building a ground game.  Obama's campaign did, Clinton didn't think it was important, so she was caught unprepared in the caucus states, and now her supporters are crying foul.  There was no foul, she just didn't get the job done.

She lost not because of the system, but because she ran a lousy campaign.  She exaggerated her record; she insulted people whose support she needed; she couldn't defend her Iraq War vote; and she presented herself as an establishment candidate in a year when people are desperate for new blood.  Some of that is her own fault, some's just bad timing.

You can tell what kind of administration a candidate is going to have based on what kind of campaign they run.  George W. Bush lied, cheated, had no respect for the rule of law, overspent like crazy, and used every nefarious means available against his opponent.  Hence, we have 8 years of the same coming from the White House.

McCain's campaign is based on old, unworkable ideas, loves George Bush's policies, especially the Iraq War, and is run entirely by lobbyists.  If, God help us, he steals the election in November, that's what we can look forward to from his administration.

Obama's run a competent, professional, effective, inspiring campaign that outperformed everyone's expectations.  I'm excited about 8 years of the same coming from Washington.  

Clinton ran a decent campaign that was marred by misspeaking, overspending, attacking fellow Democrats (I'm talking about Bill Richardson and the like, not just her opponent), staffers leaving under a dark cloud, borrowing Republican talking points, allies like Ferraro (and Bill Clinton) going off the reservation and making inappropriate comments... if Clinton had won the nomination, and did beat McCain, we'd have four more years of Clinton scandals to look forward to, distracting us from fixing the country.

At the beginning of this campaign, I thought Clinton would make a fine president, and seeing how she's run her campaign has convinced me otherwise.  Obama won because he's the better candidate, and because he'll make a better President.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:07:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McGovern's not in it this year (none / 0)

He cannot run a better GE campaign than Clinton--the polls show that over and over again. In fact, if Obama had gotten the kind of treatment Hillary has gotten by the MSM up until now, he never would have made it to Super Tuesday. But the GE voters still aren't sold on him. You can try to paint McCain as John McSame, advocate of the 100-year war, but I confidently predict that McCain is going to run better than you think, and he is already running neck-and-neck or actually beating Obama in head-to-head match-ups, whereas Hillary has a significant lead over McCain.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/25/ 175116/499

That should be a cause of concern to SDs, and if the picture continues to deteriorate, perhaps enough of them will switch their support (as unlikely as that seems right now). In any case, I'm glad Hillary is staying in for as long as she can, just for that reason.


Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings
by Inky on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:21:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McGovern's not in it this year (2.00 / 2)

How on earth could polls show whether Clinton or Obama can run a better general election campaign? This statement makes absolutely no sense.

Some polls show that Clinton does slightly better than Obama (generally within the margin of error) in a GE match up now. We haven't had a general election campaign. The idea of a general election campaign is to influence voters (both some decided voters, but mainly undecided voters). If either candidate takes a solid majority of the currently undecided voters in the GE, it will be a blowout.

In the primary run, Obama has shown a good deal of ability to pick up undecided voters. Clinton has shown much less capability to do so. In state after state, she gave up huge leads to Obama, allowing him to close or over take her lead.


by letterc on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:33:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McGovern's not in it this year (none / 0)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Cl inton/Maps/May25.html

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Ob ama/Maps/May25.html

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1551

http://hominidviews.com/?page_id=1251

Yes, either candidate can win the GE. But there can be little doubt that it is a much riskier gamble with Obama at the top of the ticket.


Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings
by Inky on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:43:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McGovern's not in it this year (2.00 / 2)

Clinton beats McCain.  Obama beats McCain.  Obama beat Clinton.  Obama is next president.  It's that easy.  Exhale and relax.


by Please on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:06:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

well, we should be able to concede... (2.00 / 1)

that hillary at her best (and with the wind at her back) does slightly better than barack at his worst (and facing a heavy headwind).

if we could depend on republicans to continue to ignore hillary (even help her, ala limbaugh) then her supporters would have a point.  my fear, of course, would be that they would reignite the psychodrama, that we'd fight the general election on their terms.

with barack, of course, it's much more likely that we fight the general election on our terms...


"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:15:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: well, we should be able to concede... (none / 0)

with barack, of course, it's much more likely that we fight the general election on our terms...

Keep telling yourself that. You may be bored now, but you will be highly excitable when the general election season begins.


Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings
by Inky on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McGovern's not in it this year (none / 0)

Except that Obama has shown himself to be a much more adept campaigner, much better at GotV, much better at pulling undecideds. I understand the current poll situation, but I also understand that polls 5 months out have poor predictive value.


by letterc on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McGovern's not in it this year (none / 0)

Was Bill Clinton a risky gamble when he was running in third place in June 1992?  General election voters don't start paying attention until at least the party conventions.  There's no way of knowing if a candidate is electable until they've already become the nominee.


by CA Pol Junkie on Mon May 26, 2008 at 10:15:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

oh, please (2.00 / 1)

Clinton supporters keep repeating this nonsense over and over, as if saying it enough times makes it true.  Just answer me this: if Clinton runs such a great campaign, how come she blew a huge lead and lost to Obama?

As for the so-called media bias, let's examine a scandal from each candidate:

Reverend Wright: The media was all over this, so Obama responded forcefully and directly, with a landmark speech and an honest discussion about race in America.

Snipergate: Clinton stuck to her story.  Then she changed her story.  Then she said she couldn't remember.  Then she said she was tired.

If you were the media, how would you cover those two responses?  And if you were the Democrats, who would you want responding to Swift Boat '08, in whatever form it takes?  The media's favorable to Obama because he's better at presenting himself to the media.  That's a huge skill for a campaigner, and a huge asset for the nominee.

Finally, a big cause for concern isn't just who's going to beat McCain by how much (because, even if we do slavishly follow the polls, both candidates are beating McBush handily at the moment), but who's going to make a better President.  Do we want a president who's going to lash out at Democrats who disagree with her (Richardson)?  Who can't defend their own decisions (Iraq)?  Who cry foul when they lose fair and square?

Let's face it - Clinton's a smart, talented, ambitious woman who ran an uneven, undisciplined campaign, and would continue to do so in November.  Except she's not going to, because she lost.  Obama ran the better campaign, he was the better candidate, he played by the rules whether he agreed with them or not, and he won.  He won.  He's going to be the nominee, and you live in fantasyland if you think the Democratic Party is going to overturn the will of the voters because of, frankly, a pretty flimsy case that she'd do better in November.

And while I'm thinking about it, one more analysis of that case.  Clinton's argument seems to boil down to "I'll win Florida."  I'm not eager to put all our eggs in that particular basket again.  Obama, meanwhile, is leading in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado, is tied in Virginia, and is within 5% in South Carolina.  South freakin' Carolina!  If Clinton's campaign is all about Florida, McCain has to defend one state.  Obama's going to hit him everywhere.  If McCain has to defend the Carolinas, that's time and money he's not spending trying to flip Pennsylvania or hold onto Ohio.  It's just plain smart strategy.  Plus, campaigning in 50 states is going to help downticket races.  You think having Clinton on the ballot would have helped state and local candidates in the "latte-drinking" states that "don't count"?  Every state counts, damn it.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: oh, please (1.50 / 2)

Reverend Wright: The media was all over this, so Obama responded forcefully and directly, with a landmark speech and an honest discussion about race in America.

That's hilarious. First Obama says he never saw anything controversial at the church, then when that doesn't fly he gives "The Speech" in which he states that he could no more disown Rev. Wright than he could his own racist grandmother. Then, after Rev. Wright goes so far as to call Obama a "politician." the blinders are finally removed and Obama promptly disowns him.

BTW, there's nothing particularly honest about a discussion of race in America that claims that the first stain on the conscience of the new republic was slavery and not the systematic looting and slaughter of this country's native peoples, which occurred before, during, and after the time of slavery.


Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings
by Inky on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:44:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: oh, please (none / 0)

Okay, Wright says something, and Obama acts a certain way.  Then Wright says something [i]worse[/i], and Obama acts a different way.  You're right!  The guy's [i]crazy[/i]!

And, um, no one's allowed to talk about slavery, ever, without also mentioning the plight of native americans?  Despite that being completely off-topic?  I guess next time Obama wants to talk about one of America's problems, he'd best make sure to include every bad thing that's ever happened in the speech, otherwise he's being "dishonest."

Come on.  You're really grasping at straws to find something wrong with the guy.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Mon May 26, 2008 at 12:26:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: oh, please (none / 0)

Do you honestly think our country's treatment of Native Americans has nothing to do with racism? Why on earth would you call it off-topic, particularly when Obama is talking about our country's original sin? Did it ever occur to you that one of the reasons the Obama does so well in the West is that Native Americans, rather than blacks (who barely are a presence there), are the most dispised and disparaged minority group in that region of the country?

And you also gloss over the fact that Obama tried to tamp down the entire controversy by falsely and repeatedly claiming that he never heard anything controversial in Wright's church.


Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings
by Inky on Mon May 26, 2008 at 07:08:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: oh, please (none / 0)

> Do you honestly think our country's treatment of Native Americans has nothing to do with racism?

Right.  That's exactly what I said.

Obama's speech was first and foremost about black-white relations.  We've been racist towards Native Americans, Jews, Asians, Latinos, Irish, Italians, and pretty much every people under the sun.  Are we not allowed to discuss the rift between black and white America without acknowledging every single bit of racism that's ever happened?  Because that would be a loooong speech.

You're also missing my larger point, which is, if you're absolutely desperate to find fault with Obama, you'll find it anywhere.  I still don't see how this makes Clinton's response to scandal less bad, or how it makes her a better candidate.  Obama tackled the issue head on - apparently he's a bad person for not also tackling related side issues, and every other problem in America while he's at it.  

But I have yet, going back to 1992, to see Clinton even attempt an honest answer to criticism when there was the chance to sidestep the question.  This is a woman who voted for the Iraq War, but wouldn't have done it again, but doesn't regret it, but believes it was wrong, but it was the right thing to do at the time, but she didn't have all the information, but she wasn't clueless, but had she known, she would have done things differently, or she would have, and please like me like me like me...  You're telling me that's going to fly in November and Obama isn't?  Come on.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:15:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McGovern's not in it this year (none / 0)

Polls prove nothing....

For one thing the turnout for Clinton and Obama will be VERY different.....

IMO Obama will have a huge turnout advantage over Clinton.  Obama increases Dem turnout, clinton increases repub turnout


by CaptainMorgan on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (none / 0)

And Bush and Gore knew there was an Electoral College at the start of the campaign.


by wilder on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:29:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (none / 0)

You keep saying it is undemocratic, but I honestly can't figure out why you think it is undemocratic.


by letterc on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:48:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I find it very hard to believe (2.00 / 1)

he'd be here complaining about this if Clinton were up 200 delegates with a lead that came from blowing the hell out of Obama in caucus states. Instead, we'd be reading about how the Obama camp arrogantly dismissed mountain states and caucuses while focusing on states with primaries.

The fact that the honesty is relative is the biggest clue one is dealing with dishonesty.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:51:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 1)

Fact is Clinton thought this would be over Feb 5, she spent all her money on early contests, had no strategy post Super Tuesday and lost...There were 100's of ways Clinton could have won no matter what Obama did, there were only a few ways Obama could win and those scenarios had to include gaffes by the Clinton campaign...

Blame it on the strategy...nothing more, nothing less.


I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?
by hootie4170 on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 2)

Disproportional? That's disingenuous.  Are you suggesting a requirement that all states submit to a system where only the popular votes count?  That's simply not a republican system.  The Electoral College, the GOP nomination process (which has been cited as exemplary by Camp Clinton), the Democratic nomination process -- none are strictly based on the popular vote, nor should they.

I have absolutely no problem with giving states wide latitude in how they select a nominee. States can choose an open primary, a closed primary, a caucus, or both.  And how do you weight states where there was an open primary vs. closed?  Should the state with the open primary get higher weight because of the larger vote totals?  

Caucuses do have important advantages in some states -- creating party activists, ensuring that the most active party workers get a large voice in selecting the nominee, and a much more transparent system for setting party rules, platforms, and electing local party officials.  

And what about superdelegates?  The DNC, by granting SDs special rights, is making the same kind of choice that caucus states do by overweighting party activists at the expense of less involved voters.

And what would the campaign finance implications be of a purely popular votes strategy?  Wouldn't big media buys be the order of the day?

I don't find any calls for reform credible at this point. I have heard Sen. Clinton's campaign flip-flop between disparaging:

  • Small states
  • Caucus states
  • Red states
  • States with large African American populations
  • DNC rulings
  • The nomination process
  • Proportionate allocation of a state's delegates

God, the unfairness of it all.  Cry me a village, Senator Clinton!


by Twin Planets on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:00:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (none / 0)

Jerome:
When was the last time a change was made to the system?  When did they institute the policy that Democratic leaning districts(and states) get more delegates then so called "red" states and districts?  Should they be changed before 2012?  You bet!!  But it isn't an excuse for Hillary.  They both knew the rules going on(Hillary more so, since guys like Harold Ickes were in on any changes taking place lately .. hell .. Harold Ickes voted for the MI/FL mess)
John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (none / 0)

Jerome, you can't complain about the level of discourse and then start a post with "ha, that's telling, and typical". You can debate with while respecting those who disagree with you.

I gave you a 1 for flame-baiting. I don't usually do that, but - jesus, you're the site administrator. Set an example.


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (2.00 / 1)

The sig constantly comes in handy here.
Oh and Jerome, if you count Michigan that means Obama gets ZERO votes. How democratic is that? Also, aren't you disenfranchising those in caucus states because they don't keep popular vote totals?

Sigh.


by sweet potato pie on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (none / 0)

This is the sort of thing that cannot be reconciled. Either you believe democracy should be upheld and you award Obama his fair share of the votes in Michigan or you believe the process should be followed and you go as the votes were recorded.

In what I've read, quite a few people who complain about the process are by no means eager to reward Obama with the very same types of rewards they would give Clinton.

I'm sick of hearing about how Obama has not demonstrated strength against John McCain, either. John McCain's sharp responses sound like an old man railing against young ones. And his response to Obama last week would have been just the same as the one to Clinton, who has no military experience either.


"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."
by vcalzone on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:43:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (none / 0)

I believe that the process should be honored and the votes be ignored. Same with Florida, only I also support giving the state to Cuba.


by Geiiga on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:39:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just read your last paragraph. (none / 0)

baloney rules!!

Dont apply rules only when it suits you. If rules are strictly what you are rooting for, then rules allow super delegates (or even the so called pledged delegates) to cast their support to precisely whichever candidate they think is the right nominee for the dem party. I dont hear the obama camp saying any such thing.

If rules (irrespective of the voter participation/voter intent) is the only thing that matters, then you must have been one of the very few democrats who thought that Al Gore shouldnt have asked for any more recounts once the automatic recount was over and it showed Bush won by 512 votes. The rest of the democratic party didnt quite care what the rules were, but wanted to make sure that there should have been a statewide recount making sure all invalidated ballots were reexamined to make sure no legitimate Gore(/Bush) votes were uncounted.

What we witnessed was in caucus/primary states was that the caucuses were much less valid (sample size wise) and the results between the two were dramatically different and in the case of TX the results were complete opposite of the other. Pointing this and the overall pop vote count lead (likely after PR votes) to the super delegates and asking them to support clinton would be very much within the rules of the dem party and was precisely the reason why this stupid super-d system was devised to begin with


by pdxarch on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:48:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good God, Get Over It. (none / 0)

Not so fast on the popular vote.  

Realclearpolitics shows Obama up 273,877 including Florida and estimates of caucus states IA, NV, ME, and WA.  Of course you could argue that the estimates of caucus states shouldn't count, but given HRC's recent statement in Florida that seems a difficult position for her supporters to maintain.  

Recent estimates indicate that PR may not have the massive turnout some had anticipated. Perhaps 30% or 800,000 based on 2.4 mio registered voters.  

With 800,000 votes, a 12% Clinton victory would net 96,000, reducing Obama's overall lead to about 176,000.  He is likely to pad that a little bit in Montana and South Dakota.  Let's say another 10K to 186,000.  

If something like this pans out, Clinton could be left to argue her popular vote 'victory' is based on netting 328,309 in Michigan vs. 0 (zero) for Obama.  If you give Obama the uncommitted Michigan vote of 238,136 - and can't we agree that the uncommitteds were largely cast in his favor - he can still claim his own popular vote victory by about 86,000.


by Kensingtonbill on Sun May 25, 2008 at 11:21:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good God, Get Over It. (none / 0)

If states want to be counted in the popular vote count, they should hold primaries.  Extrapolating popular vote totals from caucus results is a joke. You can't really complain about this, as the restrictive nature of caucuses have given your candidate a major boost in the first place.

Also, giving Obama the entire uncommitted vote is rather silly.  Edwards and other candidates not on the ballot probably made up a third of those votes.


by therealdeal on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:00:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good God, Get Over It. (none / 0)

I guess caucus votes don't count and we'll just adopt all the 'rules' that favor Senator Clinton.  Nice discussing this with you - we'll see how super delegates feel about that.    

Exit polls show that 79% of uncommitted voters supported Obama.  Even with that total (about 180,000) he would still be 30,000 or so in front of Clinton.  


by Kensingtonbill on Mon May 26, 2008 at 08:31:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More reality based posts on the primary proces (2.00 / 2)

Stop Stop stop. Why didn't you tell that to clinton last Jan? Stop crying about spilled caucus votes!


by eddieb on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:23:41 PM EST

Seriously, Jerome... (2.00 / 5)

"The un-democratic rules were in place..."

I find it hard to say that a caucus is un-democratic, and an election where one candidate was not even on the ballot is democratic.

Caucuses in part rely on, and in part reinforce, the Putnam-style social capital that keeps democratic institutions viable. I say more of them, not less.


by hotran on Sun May 25, 2008 at 07:26:26 PM EST

Re: Seriously, Jerome... (2.00 / 1)

I find it hard to say that a caucus is un-democratic, and an election where one candidate was not even on the ballot is democratic.

If you are upset about Michigan, blame Obama. No one compelled him to take his name of the ballot--he did so to curry favor with Iowa c